Category Archives: Box Office Reports

China’s Looming Toon Boom

Posted on by
6

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.

Boonie Bears one sheetBy Robert Cain for China Film Biz

March 30, 2014

Back in the early 1990s, at the request of film critic Michael Medved, I researched and then published a strategic and statistical analysis demonstrating that Hollywood’s studios were distributing too few children’s, family, and animated feature films. My analysis was picked up by the industry trades and the national press, where it attracted quite a bit of attention and stirred up controversy.

In a matter of days I received calls from the heads of Disney, Fox, Sony Pictures, the MPAA and Blockbuster, and within mere months after that most of the major studios had established new family divisions and ramped up their production of animated features and PG-rated family films.  In the years since, these genres have consistently accounted for the studios’ very highest-grossing and most profitable films.

Recently, spurred by intuition, I decided to take a closer look at the situation in China’s film market. After delving into the numbers and the trends, it quickly became clear to me that China’s distributors would profit by distributing more quality films aimed at the family audience.

In fact, if my intuition is correct, family features, and animation in particular, ought to be among the fastest growing segments of the PRC’s film business over the next 3-5 years. Despite heavy investment and rhetorical support from China’s federal and provincial governments, these types of films currently capture a much smaller share of the market in the PRC than they do in North America. But I believe this is beginning to change as the Chinese audience broadens both geographically into the third and fourth tier cities, and demographically to families with children, and as marketing to these audiences improves.Animation Share of B.O. 2009-2013

Source: Pacific Bridge Pictures research

Animation is off to a rousing start in the first quarter of 2014, clearing $186 million in revenue in just three months, which puts it on pace to easily beat the previous full-year record of $261 million that was set last year. Given the line-up of animated features still to be released through December, I expect the cumulative gross for animation in 2014 will run to around $400 million. This would put animation’s share of China’s full-year gross at about 8.2 percent, up from 7.3 percent last year.

The first-quarter spoils have gone not just to imported big-budget Hollywood pictures, but increasingly to home-grown fare like The Boonie Bears, ranked third among animated films so far this year with a Chinese record-breaking $40 million gross, and Pleasant Goat: Meet the Pegasus, ranked fourth with $14 million in box office. It’s worth noting that both of these movies are spin-offs of popular Chinese children’s TV series.

Top Grossing Animation Q1 2014

Highlights for the rest of 2014 include the recently opened Dreamworks’ pic Mr. Peabody & Sherman, which is well on its way to a China gross of at least $24 million, Blue Sky and Fox’s Rio 2, opening on April 11, South Korea’s Koala Kid (aka The Outback) opening in early May, and Dreamworks’ How to Train Your Dragon 2, expected to open in August. Mr. Peabody‘s stronger-than-expected results will make it China’s third highest grossing non-sequel, non-spinoff animated release to date after The Croods and Frozen.Average BO per animated film 2009-2014

Source: Pacific Bridge Pictures research

Since China’s film authorities allow only 5 or 6 Hollywood animated films to be imported each year as revenue sharing “quota” films, it will fall to locally produced features to drive most of the family market’s future growth. And there are signs that China’s animation houses are getting ready to play their part. Although technical capabilities and story quality have been lacking in prior Chinese releases, the tide is turning with several new films in development based on screenplays by talented American writers, and funding and services from top Chinese animation houses.

Indeed, I’m so convinced of the scale of this opportunity that I have personally initiated two new animated film projects for China, one in partnership with a multiple Oscar winning animation producer and with a theatrical release commitment from a major Chinese distributor, and a second that has attracted Chinese investors even before the treatment is finished.

If, as I expect, animation’s share of the Chinese market rises to match that of North America, by the end of this decade the PRC will become the world’s biggest audience for animated feature films, with $1.5 billion and more in annual revenues. And that’s not kids stuff.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

 

China’s Dismal December Gives Way to Jubilant January and Fantastic February

Posted on by
7

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Horse

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

February 13, 2014

If you were keeping tabs on China’s box office activity back in December you might have concluded that something was seriously wrong. Expected blockbusters like Personal Tailor and Police Story 2013 did fine, but fell short of expectations. Many other pictures failed to click. It seemed that the inexorable rise of cinema-going in China was finally, inevitably, slowing down. Unlike December 2012, which smashed all previously monthly records to become China’s highest grossing month of all time, December 2013 saw a precipitous 12 percent year-on-year drop in ticket revenue, despite a 39 percent increase in operating cinema screens.

If you were following all of this as it happened you might have said to yourself “All good things must come to an end.” Right?

Oh ye of little faith!

Mainland moviegoers shrugged off the December doldrums like they never happened, and halfway through 2014’s first quarter they’ve set a ticket buying pace that’s galloping along like, well, a horse.  A Kentucky Derby winner, that is.

To wit: January 31st, the first day of Chinese New Year, set a new box office record  set as the biggest single day ever in Chinese history, at 258 million RMB ($43.7 million); The Monkey King 3D set a new single-film record for the biggest ever opening day in China at 122 million RMB (besting Iron Man 3’s 121 million), and the ultra low-budget Dad Where are We Going enjoyed the best opening day ever for a 2D film, at 87 million RMB.

For the full week, grosses totaled 1.41 billion RMB, 81 percent higher than last year’s prior New Year’s record. According to Rentrak, Monkey King and Dad ranked #1 and #2 at the worldwide box office during their opening weekend. Almost every day of the week notched a new high water mark in Chinese movie history.New Chinese Box Office Records

Over the first 6 weeks of 2013, Mainland receipts are now a sizzling 70 percent ahead of the same period in 2013, a rate of growth nearly 10 times faster than China’s GDP growth. Right now China’s movie industry is one of the world’s most dynamic businesses.Box office for week ending Feb 9, 2014

In addition to Monkey King and Dad Where Are We Going, other bright spots of the year so far include Despicable Me 2’s very respectable $53 million gross despite a 7 month release delay; The Boonie Bears’ impressive performance as China’s highest-grossing domestically made animated feature ever with a $40+ million tally; and Man From Macau’s extraordinary run, the PRC’s leggiest in recent memory.Macau's leggy run

Dad, Where Are We Going also merits special mention because it is such a surprise hit. Inspired by the popular Chinese reality TV series, which is in turn a format licensed from the hit South Korean TV show, the film is said to have shot for just 5 days in the beginning of December, 2013, with a budget of less than $1 million. Fewer than 8 weeks later it arrived on thousands of Chinese movie screens, to generally poor reviews and word-of-mouth. But never mind all that; in less than two weeks the movie has gone on to become one of China’s biggest grossing films ever.

The big grosses should keep rolling as a raft of new films hit the theaters on Valentine’s Day, including Beijing Love Story, which got off to a solid start in box office pre-sales. Given the tough comps set last week, Valentine’s Day 2014 may not set a new all-time record, but it’s likely that it will come close.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

‘Gravity’ defies ‘Storm’ and Staves Off ‘Hunger’ in China For Second Straight Weekly Win

Posted on by
Reply

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.The White Storm poster

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

December 3, 2013

Strong word of mouth helped Gravity to float to a modest 36 percent decline in its second week, enabling it to fend off newcomer The White Storm and land its second straight win at the Chinese box office. Still going strong in its third week, Gravity should have no problem surpassing $70 million, even in the face of heavy competition from new Chinese openers.

This total would lock Gravity’s place as the 3rd biggest foreign release in China this year, behind Iron Man 3 and Pacific Rim. But it probably won’t be enough for the film to score a top 10 slot overall, as so many local films have performed well in 2013.

The Benny Chan directed action-crime thriller White Storm debuted to good but not great numbers, eking out a slim lead over Gravity during the past 3-day weekend, when they competed head-to-head. Blue Sky Studios’ animated adventure Epic fell far behind, mustering just $3.65 million in its 3-day weekend debut. The 7-month delay in Epic’s PRC release was undoubtedly a factor in its modest showing.

Box office for week ending Dec 1, 2013

Escape Plan will finish up its PRC run with an impressive $41.5 million, nearly double its U.S. total. Considering all the love China has shown in recent years for Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the movie’s sexagenarian stars, it will be a good idea for Hollywood to dust off its old two-hander action scripts and re-set them in China for this dynamic action duo.

For the first time since early September the weekly box office tally fell short of last year’s comps. Cumulative box office for the week ending December 1st saw a 7 percent decline to $58.5 million from the 63 million total in week 48 of 2012, when Life of Pi reigned.

Today saw the long-awaited debut of director Ning Hao’s No Man’s Land, an adventure thriller that has survived two major revisions and six aborted theatrical release dates over the past four years as DMG, CFG, Galloping Horse and the filmmaking team struggled to conform to the SARFT censors’ restrictions. Originally slated to release in 2010, the film stars the hugely popular Huang Bo and Xu Zheng, who co-starred in last year’s megahit Lost in Thailand.

With its excellent $3.5 million opening day, No Man’s Land should easily top Ning Hao’s prior personal record gross of $24.7 million for last year’s Guns ‘n Roses, though the director claims he doesn’t care how much the new film earns.

“If I wanted to make big money, I could have stayed at home (in coal-rich Shanxi province) and mined coal with my classmates, who are now all billionaires,” Mr. Ning said in a recent Wall Street Journal interview. I just want to do something that I like.”

Of course, what China’s theater operators would like is a big December for local Chinese pictures. With nearly 18,000 movie theater screens now in operation (35 percent more than at this time last year) and an average of 12 or 13 new ones opening every day, they are increasingly reliant on local films to help them pay off their investments.

November’s box office totaled $250 million, a 36 percent increase over 2012, and cumulative year-to-date box office now stands at $3.22 billion. If December’s revenue merely matches last December’s total—a distinct possibility given the tough comps established in 2012 by Lost in Thailand—then China’s total for 2013 will wind up just shy of $3.6 billion.

If, on the other hand, expected hits No Man’s Land, Personal Tailor and Police Story can each draw $80 million to $100 million in ticket revenue, then the year-end total could, just possibly, reach $3.7 billion.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

‘Gravity’ Thrills, ‘Catching Fire’ Chills as China’s Box Office Tops $3 Billion

Posted on by
1

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Gravity Chinese poster

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

November 26, 2013

Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity scored the PRC’s fifth best opening of the year with a nearly $36 million liftoff, as U.S.-made films grabbed the top four box office spots and six of the top seven in the week ending November 24th.

Gravity, which is performing nearly as well as surprise hit Life of Pi did at this time a year ago, also set records for IMAX, grossing almost $7.5 million, or more than 20 percent of the film’s opening 6-day total, on 123 screens. Gravity‘s marketing campaign benefited nicely from its liberal use of James Cameron’s quote calling it “The best space film ever.”

The fourth quarter has been a good one so far for Hollywood, with American movies capturing a 55 percent share of the market during the period from October 1st through November 24th.  U.S. films are now at their peak market share for 2013 with over 47 percent of all China box office revenue, though that figure will ebb back to about 42 percent as local Chinese releases dominate the calendar throughout December.Top 5 Opening Weeks 2013

One exception to this trend is Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Despite its rare day-and-date release and its huge reception in the U.S., Lionsgate’s sci-fi/action picture failed to stir up much interest in China. Its four-day total of $12.95 million makes it only the 31st best opener of the year, behind even such modestly performing titles as A Good Day to Die Hard and After Earth.  Although Catching Fire’s debut improved by about 16 percent over the opening week of its 2011 predecessor The Hunger Games, it did so in a market that has grown by more than 80 percent in the interim, so the sequel’s performance in the PRC has to be considered a letdown.

Another disappointment was the suspense-thriller Control, a China-Hong Kong-Taiwan co-production starring Daniel Wu that eked out only $3.5 million for the week. The California-born Wu has consistently been one of China’s most bankable stars, so his latest film’s weak opening must have surprised the film’s backers, who include Huayi Brothers, Media Asia and Celestial Pictures.

Box office week ending 11-24-13

Nationwide gross was $69 million, a 49 percent increase over the same period in 2012, and the biggest weekly total since early October, when Young Detective Dee reigned over a $101 million weekly theatrical total. Year-to-date gross has now eclipsed $3 billion, and if last year’s trend holds, the last five weeks of 2013 will generate a $500+ million haul for PRC theater operators, resulting in a final yearly gross of around $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

Warner Bros’ Stellar Year in China

Posted on by
Reply

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Gravity pic

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

November 21, 2013

Having already clinched bragging rights as the top-grossing Hollywood studio in China this year, Warner Bros further cemented its lead with the excellent rollout of Gravity on Tuesday.  With nearly $10 million in ticket sales in its first two days of PRC release, and what I’m estimating will be at least a $70 million final tally, Gravity should push Warners’ 2013 total in China to around $325 million.

This will mark the first time I can remember when Warners will have won the China box office crown. It will also reflect an impressive 80 percent revenue boost over Warners’ respectable, albeit distant second-place finish to Fox in 2012. With such box office hits as Pacific Rim, Man of Steel, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and now Gravity, Warners will average about $54 million in ticket sales per picture.

Second place in the studio derby this year will go to Disney, whose Marvel superhero offerings Iron Man 3 and Thor 2 will account for around $175 million of that studio’s $250 million annual take.

Sony and Fox will finish third and fourth, respectively, with Fox falling off precipitously from its record-holding $376 million China gross in 2012. Sony had only one strong release with Skyfall back in January, but it was able to get more films into China than any other studio and in aggregate managed to cobble together more than $200 million in gross revenue. Although Fox got solid results in 2013 from The Croods (a Dreamworks animated picture) and Wolverine, it couldn’t match the huge numbers of last year’s Titanic 3D, Life of Pi and Ice Age 3 and wound up with less than half of last year’s gross with around $176 million.

Universal and Paramount, the two studios with the least active presence in China, received the fewest import quota slots and grossed the least among the majors, with about $159 million and $129 million respectively.

At last week’s box office, U.S. films captured the top three slots, although two of these were buyout films. Thor: The Dark World and Escape Plan won the top two spots for their second week in a row with $24.9 million and $13.3 million, respectively. New entry Red 2 picked up $5.9 million in its first three days, enough to handily beat the $4.9 million that Red collected during its entire run in 2011. Total nationwide box office was $54 million for the week, a 57 percent increase over the same period last year.

Box Office week ending 11-17-13

U.S. films will see another week or two of relative prosperity before the year-end Chinese tent-poles move in and grab all the spoils in December and January. Look for big results from The White Storm, which releases on November 29th, followed by big December debuts from No Man’s Land, The Four 2, Firestorm, Personal Tailor and Police Story. By year’s end, Hollywood movies will land only 2 of the top 10 spots at China’s box office in 2013, down from 7 last year and 6 in 2011.

In aggregate, U.S. distributors will manage only a meager 5 to 6 percent increase in their China sales this year, a mere fraction of the 60 percent gain that Chinese language films have enjoyed. Hollywood has let yet another year go by doing little more than lobbing movies into China from across the Pacific, and it has paid the price with a precipitous drop in market share.

Meanwhile, aggressive non-Chinese players like Australia’s Village Roadshow and Korea’s CJ Entertainment have stepped into the breach with highly successful Mandarin language co-productions. And local Chinese players are rapidly growing in competitive strength, as exemplified by Huayi Brothers’ massive increase in its stock market capitalization to $5.2 billion from only $1 billion a year ago. Many of these companies have established beachheads in the U.S., and it won’t be long before their growing financial strength in China will enable them to compete effectively with the stodgy U.S. studios and further erode their diminishing dominance of the global film market.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

Sly and Arnold’s Career Re-birth in China

Posted on by
1

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Escape Plan poster

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz (Bennett, Janet and Thomas, this one’s for you)

November 14, 2013

Long before they reach retirement age, most action movie stars naturally slide (or sometimes plummet) into box office obscurity. At 67 and 66 years of age, respectively, Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger have valiantly fought this trend, but they are long past their peak box office years in most places around the world.

But not in China. PRC audiences have embraced these two senior citizens and breathed new life into their action movie careers. In a land where the young are taught to treat their elders with respect, Schwarzenegger and Stallone’s recent film offerings have gotten lots of love from China’s teenaged and twenty-something filmgoers.

Take the pair’s current action-thriller, Escape Plan. In its first 10 days of release the picture has already grossed more in China, with nearly $26 million, than it will earn in its entire North American run. It nearly won last week’s box office crown against the far costlier Thor: The Dark World, with a 128 million RMB total versus Thor’s 129 million, despite Thor’s huge advantages of a bigger screen count, higher 3D ticket prices, and a rare day-and-date PRC release. Escape Plan will wind up with around $35 million in China, making it the highest grossing buyout film this year.

In fact, between them Sly and Arnold have appeared in 5 films that have each grossed more than 100 million RMB at China’s theaters, an exceptional record that is matched by few Chinese stars.  Their core audience in China has no doubt grown up watching the pantheon of Rocky, Rambo and Terminator movies on TV and DVD, and is now finally getting their chance to see their movie heroes on the big screen.

With such a big, welcoming audience in China, Sly and Arnold are undoubtedly looking for more movie vehicles to propel their newly vibrant careers. So I offer a few ideas below, completely free of charge (just send me my participation checks when the profits roll in):

Not So Total Recall. This action flick kicks follows a geriatric man who goes for a virtual vacation but is tragically unable to enjoy the early-bird Chinese buffet because he’s forgotten to bring along his virtual dentures.

The Lost Action Hero. A young Chinese fanboy’s dream of teaming up with his favorite 80’s action movie hero turns sour when he finds the now enfeebled and amnesia-prone codger stuck on Beijing’s 3rd ring road, unable to find a way to exit and make his way back to the retirement village.

The Dependables – a team of elderly mercenaries are stymied in their attempt to eliminate a North Korean dictator when the dictator’s henchmen cruelly cut off their supply of adult diapers.

Stop or My Great Granddaughter Will Shoot – a once-tough detective’s life and work are disrupted by a Golden Week visit from his 6 year-old, pacifier sucking descendant, who embarrasses him by turning out to be a better crime-fighter than he is.

Rocky Rolls – 78 year-old Rocky Balboa comes back for one more title bout staged in the Forbidden City, fighting this time from his electric wheelchair. You’ll cry tears of nostalgia as you watch Rocky slowly glide up the steps of Beijing’s Temple of Heaven, arms raised in victory, in his wheelchair stair climber.

For the week ending November 10th, PRC box office totaled a solid $56 million, 43 percent better than the same frame last year. After the one-two finish of Thor and Escape Plan, Hotel Transylvania took in $3.5 million in its second week of release for a two-week cume of $9.3 million, quite respectable considering its status as a buyout film and its China release delay of more than a year.

Box office for week ending Nov 10, 2013

Russia’s Stalingrad crumbled against the Hollywood competition, dropping by nearly 70 percent in its second week. Although it debuted at number one in the prior week—making it the first non-Hollywood, non-Chinese movie to top the charts in China—the film has quickly faded and will fail to reach the 100 million RMB level.

The rest of November and December will witness a crush of new releases, more than in any previous year. On Singles Day (an unofficial holiday on 11-11) nine new domestic releases cannibalized each other, leaving nearly all of them with dismal results. November 15th will see Red 2 and Olympus Has Fallen open against each other, and early next week Gravity, Rush, and the Hunger Games sequel Catching Fire will all open within a few days of one other.

Although China’s box office results in November have so far fallen a little short of general expectations, the rest of the year should be flush with activity and the year-end tally should well exceed $3.5 billion.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

China’s Monster Summer

Posted on by
Reply

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Pacific Rim 1

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

August 22, 2013

The disturbing drought that plagued Hollywood’s movies in China through the first half of 2013 has been quenched, at least temporarily, by a string of box office successes that began in July. Chief among these has been Pacific Rim, a monsters-meet-robots spectacle that couldn’t have been more perfectly aimed at Chinese moviegoers. In its first three weeks of PRC release (as of Thursday August 22nd) the film has devoured $109 million in receipts, good enough for 2nd place this year among all Hollywood imports, and better by far than the $98.7 million the film has earned in North America.

While some might attribute Pacific Rim’s PRC success to its giant CG robots—the Transformers franchise is after all the highest grossing movie series in China’s history—I’d like to make the case that the film’s massive monsters are at least as responsible for scaring up Chinese ticket sales. Chinese audiences love a good monster movie as much as anyone, but the country’s strict censorship policies have restricted the homegrown monster movie quotient to practically zero. It’s a quirk of the Chinese film administration’s policies that monsters can invade China—or its theaters, anyway—from overseas, but they’re generally prohibited from breeding, hatching, or emerging from slimy lagoons onshore in the Middle Kingdom.

Further proof of my theory can be found in this week’s monster opening of Jurassic Park 3D, Universal’s reissue of the 20-year old Steven Spielberg dinosaurs-gone-wild classic. With almost $17 million in Chinese revenue in its first three days, the film ranks as the fourth biggest foreign opener of 2013 and is is well on its way to becoming the biggest grossing re-release of the past 12 months. Although the grosses for reissues tend to quickly fall off, the pattern so far suggests a final gross in the $30 million to $40 million range, which would make it China’s second highest grossing 3D re-release ever—albeit a far distant second—to 2012’s Titanic 3D.Top-grossing HW rel

The next ‘monster’ movie up is of a more kid-friendly variety, Pixar’s Monsters University, which is scheduled to open on Friday, August 23rd. China’s monster mania may help the film to break the Pixar curse, which has seen most of that animation studio’s films open poorly in the PRC and quickly fade away. With little family-fare competition I expect Monsters U to take at least $25 million in China, which would put it well above Toy Story 3’s $16.7 million gross in 2010, Cars 2’s $11.9 million in 2011, and Brave‘s dismal $4.7 million in 2012.

Last week’s box office saw Pacific Rim win its third week in a row, the first time that’s happened for a Hollywood film in 2013 (the China/Hong Kong co-pro Journey to the West won 5 straight weeks in February and March). Tiny Times 2, the sequel to July’s teen girl-oriented hit Tiny Times, ran up its total to $44 million with a $17 million second place finish. And Fan Bingbing’s romantic comedy One Night Surprise from writer-director Jin Yimeng (Sophie’s Revenge) took third with $15 million, proving the rom-com genre’s continuing strength with Chinese audiences.Box office for week ending Aug 18, 2013

Bona’s boxing flick Unbeatable took fourth place with $9 million on generally positive reviews. Rounding out the top 5 was Wanda Media’s disappointing release  The Palace, which managed just $7.4 million in its first 7 days despite the huge opening screen count allocated by its sister company, theatrical exhibitor Wanda Cinema Line. This marks Wanda’s second flop in a row after Man of Tai Chi. Wanda is new at the feature production game, and with its deep pockets the company presumably has the staying power to get enough at bats to eventually generate some homeruns.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

‘Tiny Times,’ Gargantuan Grosses

Posted on by
2

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Tiny Times

by Robert Cain for China Film Biz

July 4, 2013

Happy 4th of July everyone, it’s America’s Independence Day. As a person who enjoys the uninfringed right to express my thoughts to readers around the world, I’m extremely grateful for the precious freedom America’s founders fought for and bequeathed to their descendants.

On another note, I’m dedicating this post to Dominic Ng, Bennett Pozil, and their superb team at East West Bank. They recently hosted me at two of their events and made invaluable introductions for me to their clients. Dominic was kind enough to publicly recognize my work in a room full of heavy hitters at his “U.S.-China Economic Relations“ summit at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown Los Angeles. And since Bennett has been after me to keep writing this blog, pleading that in its absence he’s been forced to read trade papers like the Hollywood something-or-other and another thing whose name I forget that starts with the letter “V”, I suppose anyone who gets some use out of this humble publication should thank Bennett for his persistent cajoling.

It has been an eventful month or so since I last wrote about China’s film biz. In recent weeks Iron Man 3 finished its run at $121 million, edging out local romantic drama So Young to become the second highest grossing film of the year so far behind Journey to the West. Dreamworks’ animated movie The Croods defied everyone’s expectations, including my own, running up a magnificent $63 million, which places it among the highest grossing animated films in Chinese history. Legendary East announced a partnership with China Film Group; local film American Dreams in China ran up an $86 million gross; Man of Steel opened on 6,500 screens, the biggest launch to date in China; and Paramount’s World War Z was barred by the censors, despite the producers having made pre-emptive changes to avoid offending them.

Also, the July release schedule was announced, and with four big Hollywood titles opening (After Earth, White House Down, Fast and Furious 6, and Pacific Rim) the U.S. studios might finally get a chance to make up some ground against their Chinese competitors. Finally, the release schedule for December 2013 has been set, and it looks to be a blockbuster holiday, with Tiny Times 1.5, Jackie Chan’s Police Story 2013, mega-director Feng Xiaogang’s Personal Tailor, and possibly Overheard 3 and the star-studded Monkey King (with Donnie Yen, Chow Yun-fat and Aaron Kwok) all set to open within a two-week period. My Chinese correspondent Firedeep predicts that four of these five films will wind up out-grossing Iron Man 3.

Which brings us up to the present. China’s exhibitors and producers are enjoying another stellar year so far, with almost $1.7 billion in grosses in the first half, nearly 40 percent ahead of the first half of 2012. Given the patterns of prior years, I expect a $3.7 billion final tally for the year. It’s worth noting that China is now routinely grossing more each month than it did in the entire year of 2006. At the current rate of growth the PRC market will surpass North America as the world’s largest territory in 2017, and even if growth slows considerably the succession will take place in 2018 or 2019 at the latest.

The week ending June 30th was the third biggest so far this year, at $87.5 million. Tiny Times set new records for the opening day of a local film at $12.4 million, and went even wider than Man of Steel, running on nearly 50 percent of China’s 15,000+ screens. Look for the teen female oriented Tiny Times to wind up at around $100 million when its run ends.Box office week ending 6-30-13

Man of Steel continued strong, with $21.1 million in its second week. Heavy competition from Tiny Times will curtail its grosses, and it will likely finish in the $55 million to $60 million range, which is where many recent U.S. blockbusters have settled.

Star Trek Into Darkness finished up its run right in that same range, with $57 million. To the surprise of many observers Star Trek outperformed in China, earning a healthy 13 percent of its worldwide gross in the PRC. Compare this to, say, Skyfall, Oz the Great and Powerful, and The Hobbit, each of which earned only 5 percent of their respective worldwide totals in China.

In the coming days I’ll write more about China’s first half results and the U.S. studios’  performance. Until then, happy independence day!

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

‘Iron Man 3’ – ‘So Young’ Duel Smashes Chinese Box Office Records. Are Hollywood’s Fortunes Turning?

Posted on by
Reply

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

May 8, 2013

It’s happening so often in China these days that it’s difficult not to sound clichéd, but it was another record-breaking week at the national box office in the 7-day period ending May 5th.

So many records toppled that to list them all would fill up an entire column. To avoid making this article an overly long list, I’ll mention just a few.

First, at $148 million, last week’s cumulative PRC gross easily beat the all-time weekly record of $136 million that was set during Valentine’s Day week less than three months ago.

Although Iron Man 3’s $64 million 5-day gross fell about $10 million short of the all-time single week record that was set by last year’s Titanic 3D at $74.7 million—it did set new records for biggest midnight screenings total with $2.1 million, and biggest opening day with $19 million.

So Young, the Vicky Zhao directed romance, notched the biggest second-place weekly gross ever, with $53 million.

And The Croods became the highest-grossing original (that is, non-sequel and non-pre-existing franchise) animated film in China’s box office history, with a $36 million total as of Sunday.Box office week ending 5-5-13

So all of this is good for China and good for Hollywood, right?

Good for China’s producers and distributors, yes. For Hollywood, it’s hard to get too enthused. This past week was a positive blip in what continues to be a confounding and rather distressing trend for American studio films in China.

There’s no debating that Iron Man 3 is a solid success. Its PRC gross will roughly double the $60 million gross of the year’s second-best Hollywood release so far, Skyfall, and it will become the first Hollywood film in 12 months to reach $100 million.

But it still may not beat So Young, a melodrama from a first-time Chinese director with a production budget that was probably less than 3 percent what Iron Man cost. And So Young won’t even be among China’s top 5 grossers this year.

When you consider that Iron Man 3 is the biggest and best that Hollywood has to offer, that it enjoys the backing of a strong local partner in DMG and an unprecedented level of government support, yet it still struggles to beat a low-budget B-level Chinese language movie, you know something’s not working. Iron Man didn’t break the downward trend for Hollywood in China, rather, it’s the exception that proves the rule.

Chinese audiences like Hollywood movies, but they love Chinese ones. And that’s a major problem for Hollywood.

China’s box office is now up 41 percent year-to-date (36 percent in RMB terms) while North America is down by 11 percent. Chinese movies are getting better, and with $50+ million grosses now routine, they’re becoming much more profitable. Capital is attracted to ventures that offer profits, and Chinese movies, though tricky investments in some ways, are looking increasingly attractive.

Because Hollywood action movies like Iron Man remain extraordinarily expensive to produce, they need growth from overseas to compensate for their shrinking domestic market. China was supposed to be the solution to Hollywood’s math problem, but China isn’t cooperating. In the global market for film financing, U.S.-based projects are going to find it increasingly difficult to compete, unless they radically change their strategies.

Two strategic approaches that offer promising future prospects for foreign producers are:

1. Provide animated films and family fare. These genres have repeatedly gotten special dispensations from SARFT, enjoying prime distribution slots even during holidays and blackout periods.

2. Make local Chinese language films for low to moderate budgets. This is not easy, but at least it’s permitted, and as we’ve seen, a well-made Chinese film can generate windfall profits.

A third strategy, U.S.-China co-productions, remains extremely challenging, and it may still be a few years, if ever, before such productions become common. As Jiang Wei, general manager of Edko (Beijing) Films Limited, puts it:

“The Chinese film industry needs to grow for greater cooperation to be achieved. There is no real in-depth cooperation, in which staff from both countries work together, like what the English and Australian filmmakers have been doing in Hollywood. When China’s film industry grows as an equal partner and the box office becomes big enough, the Hollywood community will have to think of real stories involving Chinese culture and people who are real characters. Only then will real co-productions be possible.”

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

China Swoons With ‘Iron Man’ Fever

Posted on by
Reply

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Wang Xueqi and IM3

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

May 1, 2013

I didn’t dare say it until now as I’ve been holding my breath for my friends who handled the Chinese production and release of Iron Man 3, but “WOW!” Their picture has just set new PRC revenue and attendance records for midnight screenings with over $2 million, and initial reports indicate it has easily surpassed Transformers 3’s full opening day record of $15 million, with a nearly $20 million haul in its first-day plus midnight receipts.

And after so many disappointing PRC releases of Hollywood films in the first quarter, IM3 now appears likely to become the first U.S. film in 12 months, since Titanic 3D last April, to crack $100 million at Chinese multiplexes.

I’ve gone on record several times here with the opinion that So Young might beat Iron Man 3 in total China box office revenue. But now it’s a real horse race, and I may wind up eating my words.

Barely a year ago it was conventional wisdom that super hero films don’t play in China, because audiences didn’t grow up with the characters and weren’t familiar with their stories. And until recently this was true; the last Iron Man movie grossed only a fraction of what Avatar, Inception, and several Chinese language hits did back in 2010.

But Disney and Marvel have worked hard to edify the Chinese audience with films like Captain America, Thor, and especially The Avengers, and together with the invaluable efforts of their Chinese partner DMG they made Iron Man 3’s release into a major cultural event. Despite increasing their initial midnight screen count from 1,500 to over 2,300, there was scarcely a ticket to be had in most theaters, and commentary about the film has lit up China’s social media networks.China B.O. Perf of U.S. Films

The China-U.S. collaboration on Iron Man 3 faced numerous challenges and risks, and its success was far from a sure thing, but today’s box office results have vindicated the Disney/Marvel/DMG strategy. Congratulations to all involved for boldly and successfully pioneering new ground in the China-Hollywood relationship.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.