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By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

March 19, 2013

The months long stretch of American movies’ subordination to local films in China came to an end last week with the release of A Good Day to Die Hard, which earned $15.8 million in its four-day PRC debut. That was good enough for a solid first-place finish and contributed to a 73 percent weekly share for non-Chinese films, by far the best showing for foreign pics in China this year.

To be sure, Die Hard’s opening was solid but it wasn’t exactly a barnburner.  It ranked as only the third best opening weekend for an American film in China this year, and wouldn’t have rated among the top ten openings of 2012. But relative to its performance in the U.S. and other major territories, Die Hard’s $15+ million Chinese debut can be viewed as a true success. Its projected China tally of $38 to $45 million will easily trump its grosses in every other international territory, and will represent at least 12 percent of the picture’s worldwide total. Compare that figure to the 4 to 6 percent China indexes achieved by Skyfall, The Hobbit, and Jack Reacher, and the 2 percent index of Les Miserables. It’s the first time this year that a studio quota film will play at least as well in China as it does in the rest of the world.

Action remains the dominant genre at China’s multiplexes, with a 40 percent share year-to-date. The fantasy genre holds 28 percent share, due almost entirely to the success of one film, Journey to the West. Animation and romantic comedies have been especially weak so far in 2013, with just 5 percent and less than 1 percent, respectively.

China’s box office continues to blaze at a spectacular growth trajectory, with a year to-date total that is 45 percent ahead of the first 11 weeks of 2012. A $3.5 billion year-end total appears to be a reasonably safe bet, and even $4 billion is not entirely out of the question.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

January 31, 2013

My Chinese colleague Firedeep has just given me an update on upcoming theatrical release dates.

Here’s the schedule for revenue-share films to be released in the next six weeks:

Yes, you read correctly: current word is that Oz and Die Hard will be pitted against each other on the same release date. How and why SARFT makes decisions like this is a mystery to anyone outside SARFT’s inner circles. I should point out that I’m still awaiting confirmation from a second source in China and/or from the MPAA, and It is still possible that one of the films may be moved off this date.

Release dates for notable buyout films include:

Another interesting development was the announcement by Enlight Pictures—the power indie behind smash hit Lost in Thailand—that their upcoming film So Young, an adaptation from the youth fiction novel to be directed by star actress Vicki Zhao, will debut on April 26, the same date that DMG is targeting for Iron Man 3.

I’ll furnish more updates as I receive them.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.

by Robert Cain with Firedeep for China Film Biz

January 2, 2013

During my first 15 or so years working across the Hollywood-China divide, I heard countless times that China would never be a major cinema-going country. That going out to the movies simply wasn’t part of the culture. More than conventional wisdom, China’s aversion to the movie-going experience was widely regarded as fact.

I plugged away for years in the Chinese entertainment market because I was a contrarian. I didn’t believe that Chinese people weren’t like people everywhere else; I was sure they’d enjoy going out to the cinema for a good comedy, a good drama, or a good action spectacle just as much as Americans, Germans, French, Koreans, and Brazilians do.

Of course the conventional wisdom was wrong. The thing that had held Chinese audiences back was that they lacked movie theaters. And now, with 13,000 screens in the PRC and an average of 7 new ones being added every day, they have proven China to be a powerhouse, the fastest growing and soon to be the most important movie-going nation in history. Attendance and revenue records are dropping faster than eggs drop into soup.

Until just a few weeks ago the records belonged to Hollywood films like Titanic and Avatar. And new conventional wisdom formed; that Chinese audiences loved movies, just so long as they were American blockbusters.

And then came Lost in Thailand. On December 12, this little Chinese slapstick comedy with a budget barely one one-hundredth the size of Avatar’s has sunk Titanic’s re-release record in China, and shattered Avatar’s all-time China attendance record. In another ten days or so it could break Avatar’s long-standing record as China’s highest grossing release ever.  And in doing so it proved that Chinese audiences love Chinese movies at least as much as American ones.

Anyone who makes a living anywhere in the film business should be asking themselves, “how did this happen?” Because sooner or later it will happen again. And again. And before we know it China will be the world’s movie kingmaker, the land of the billion dollar blockbuster. And many of those blockbuster movies will be Chinese.

Lost in Thailand wasn’t supposed to be December’s big hit. That title was expected to go to Jackie Chan’s CZ12, or to Feng Xiaogang’s Back to 1942. Produced and distributed by indie studio Beijing Enlight, Lost in Thailand was the sequel to 2010’s Lost in Journey, a comedy that barely grossed $7 million. With the same cast–well regarded comedians Huang Bo, Wang Baoqiang and Zheng Xu—and with star turned first-time director Zheng Xu at the helm, the movie would reasonably have been expected to gross maybe $10 million or $15 million. Factoring in Fan Bingbing’s brief cameo appearance one might have generously estimated a $25 million tally.

But Lost in Thailand grossed nearly $50 million in its first 5 days, and it has powered on to cross the $160 million mark in 19 days—more than Titanic 3D grossed during its entire 55 day run. It now appears a lock to beat Avatar’s 2009-2010 PRC record of $209 million. Along the way it has broken many of China’s records for attendance and revenue.

So what happened?

More than anything, Lost in Thailand stood out simply by being a well-made and well-regarded movie. In a market where most locally-made films are viewed by moviegoers as ranging from bad to awful, Lost in Thailand is a truly funny and engaging comedy. Set in Thailand, the film tells the story of two Chinese businessmen who go searching for their boss in the north, and then link up with a tourist eager to fulfill his ‘bucket list’ by exploring the country. Along the way they cause a maelstrom of comic trouble. It’s not exactly a critical darling, but a solid crowd-pleaser.

Timing was also critical to Lost in Thailand‘s success. December is the most important season for local language films, as it is a time of both heavy attendance and a blackout period for Hollywood films. Many of the year’s biggest tent-poles open in December. In 2009 Chinese audiences got Avatar; in 2010 it was romantic comedy If You Are the One 2 and crowd pleasing action-comedy Let the Bullets Fly. But last year was a different story. There were no comedies, only the heavy and depressing drama Flowers of War and costume martial arts film Flying Swords of Dragon Gate. No comedy, no escapist fantasy. And throughout 2012 the only big local hit was the action fantasy Painted Skin 2. Despite its $115 million gross, Painted Skin 2 was generally considered a mediocre cash grab, a much-reviled movie that many regretted having spent their money to see.

So by December Chinese audiences were clearly looking to have some fun. Opening against he unrelentingly sad Back in 1942, almost any properly marketed comedy would have succeeded. As Enlight’s Chelsea Tan put it, “Besides Lost in Thailand’s quality, I think its success is mostly due to its having a good releasing date, its lack of genre competition, and our vibrant use of social networks to interact with the audience. And Lost in Thailand delivers jokes and scenes that make for good word-of-mouth discussion.”

Lost in Thailand‘s breakout success can be viewed as a populist reaction to an overabundance of big budgeted historical dramas and Wuxia/martial arts flicks. These kinds of movies have become tired, with fewer and fewer ticket buyers showing up. The commercial failures of Back to 1942 and of recently released costume dramas The Last Supper and The Flying Guillotines should signal the end of the current cycle for these genres.

In its own way, Lost in Thailand proves that Chinese audiences care about local films. They want to see Chinese faces in contemporary Chinese situations, films that reflect their own culture, their own sense of humor. Sure, they will continue to attend the mega-budget, effects-driven Hollywood spectacles. But when they go for a local movie, they don’t care about scale, budget or effects. They just want to see stories that they can connect to, stories that reflect their modern day circumstances, stories that are uniquely Chinese.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.

By Sally Yeh and Robert Cain for China Film Biz

December 12, 2012

Back in October I received a mixed response to an article I published here on CFB titled “Sucking Up and Flattering Your Way to Success in China.” One American sent me a rather huffy letter of disapproval, accusing me of insulting Chinese people. But many of my Chinese friends and acquaintances sent me notes of congratulations for accurately pegging the way things work. I’ve consistently found that the people I deal with in China’s film business are far more inclined to be self-effacing than sanctimonious, and most greatly appreciate a good joke that pokes fun at Chinese manners.

One such friend, Beijing based film producer Sally Yeh, was so tickled by the article that she sent me her list of 10 rules for Chinese behavior, which I have published below with her permission. Get familiar with these rules and you’ll greatly improve your ability to understand what’s going on.

Sally’s 10 Rules of Chinese Behavior

1.  Never say “no.”
Due to matters of ‘face’, no one can say no if they want to maintain a relationship. For Chinese and foreigners alike, the trick is to figure out when “yes” means “no” and when it actually means “yes.” And hopefully to avoid assuming a “yes” means “no” when it really means “yes.”  This sort of confusion occurs all the time and sometimes leads to ridiculous results.

2.  Don’t plan ahead
People in China live by Nike’s slogan and see no value in planning ahead. Because things are changing so fast, it makes no sense to plan, forecast and execute.  Cultivating a plan for the next five to ten years is almost completely unheard of.

3.  Only trust your ‘homies’
China’s a big country and home is very near and dear to the heart, so if you’re from my province then we’re somehow ‘related’. There’s a kindred spirit in knowing that ‘family’ exists outside of one’s province.  Foreigners?  They’re foreign – they’ll never even try to figure you out.

4.  Cut corners  
The PRC is so autocratic, people will break rules whenever they can. You can’t make an eggroll without breaking some eggs. And you can’t get anything done in China without breaking a few rules.

5.  Push, shove and kick your way to where you’re going
Just look at how people cut lines at the hospitals, airports, train stations and bus stops!  Pushing people and giving no personal space to others are quite common in China. When those subway doors open don’t let the people inside get out, just shove your way onboard. Never mind the rules of etiquette (or physics).

6.  Never own up
Whatever went wrong, don’t confess.  You can always come up with an excuse at the spur of the moment without showing any wrongdoing or guilt.  That’s why actors are easy to find in China, because everyone’s “acting” when they need to.

7.  Be obedient and never speak up to the boss

From kindergarten onward, Chinese are always rewarded for their obedience.  Hence, many who have graduated from the best Chinese universities cannot think outside-the-box, because they never learned anything else to do aside from getting top grades by taking orders, instructions, and absolutes.  This leaves very little room for creativity.

8.  Always negotiate the price

In China, sometimes the final price isn’t locked until the whole project is over.  Thus, the best estimated budget is a thumbnail approximation and if your relationship was good, it can be less than expected.  If your relationship was bad, it can cost you.

9.  Always buy foreign products, even people

Chinese consumers have completely lost faith in their homemade products.  They will go as far as to have baby milk powder shipped from Germany to China than to buy a locally made milk powder.  This is also trending with people – investors seem to think there are no creative people in China even worth fostering or training. Instead, it’s better to just find out how much Spielberg costs.

10. Numbers rule

Rarely does a Chinese conversation go by without some mention of price, salary, grade point average, sales figures, age  – any number that puts a benchmark on the separation of ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’; affordable and unaffordable; comparisons that always emphasize measurements of  numerical value.  The Chinese are the best mathematicians in the world.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com. Sally Yeh is a Beijing-based film producer whose credits include “Bean Sprouts and Salted Fish” and “Chandni Chowk to China.”

Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn. 

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

October 21, 2012

My daily conversations with clients, business partners and friends in Hollywood often leave me with the distinct feeling that very few have a clear idea of how to get ahead in China. The language, culture, customs, ethics—they can be daunting if you haven’t spent years learning the ropes. To those who are new to the PRC it must seem an impenetrable, incomprehensible and treacherous place to do business.

I’ve spent more than twenty years doing movie and TV deals in the Middle Kingdom, and though no one has ever called me the Thalberg or Bruckheimer of China, I’ve accomplished enough there that I believe I’m qualified to offer some useful advice. If you want to learn the secret of success in China, this is your lucky day. I’m about to share with you the one, indispensable thing you must do to get ahead in the PRC.

And no, studio execs, I’m not talking about bribery. Put your checkbooks down, you sly dogs. Sure, a well-placed bribe here and there can work wonders in China (how else to explain John Carter’s theatrical release slot?)*, but really, who can afford it anymore? Back when I started doing business a nice bottle of cognac or a pair of designer jeans could buy you the entire China magnesium concession—or so I’m told**—but nowadays one has to consider gifting a brand new BMW or a tony Sanlitun pied-a-terre just to get SARFT to approve a script. And besides, with the SEC sniffing around your email and cell phone records, the risk of an FCPA conviction just takes all the fun out of it.

No, I’m talking about a more cost-effective, time-honored strategy than bribery for getting what you want in China: I’m talking about flattery. Brownnosing. Ass-kissing, kowtowing, shamelessly obsequious bootlicking. There are 322 words in the Chinese language for “toadying” and every single one of them is a synonym for “success.”

Fawning over power brokers to curry favor is an art in China’s film business, a refined social skill that should not be attempted by novices. One can be forgiven for thinking that Hollywood bona fides in this arena are applicable in China, but the two cultures have completely different forms of sucking up.

First, one must know when and where to brownnose.  In a business meeting, perhaps? Never! Serious business rarely gets done in business meetings. The proper venues for apple-polishing are banquets, parties, dinners, anywhere that food and especially booze are served. You’ll want the boss-man or boss-woman liquored up and tipsily receptive to your two-faced advances. If your target hasn’t reached the ideal level of inebriation, you can get the ball rolling with a toast.

For beginners, it is usually best not to get too flashy. Acknowledging the target’s superiority over one’s lowly self is a safe way to go. As author Fang Ye pointed out in a recent article in China’s “Economic Observer”:

Some people decide to go the self-deprecating route. For instance, at a recent dinner, someone stood up to say: “Director Wang, when you came up with your last idea, I sincerely felt someone like me wouldn’t ever be able to think that up, even if I worked overtime for the whole year.” This is a good technique for beginners.

Experienced flatterers can take risks, for example, using the boss’s children. Here’s an example of intermediate level flattery that could have been delivered, say, by a man working in a Chinese studio’s production office:

“The last time your daughter came by the office, I happened to be working overtime. Your daughter said to me, “You are working so hard.” What a kind child she is! You can tell she really cares about people! It’s so rare for a child her age to be so thoughtful!”

Fang Ye applauds this sort of intricately crafted kiss-up with a five-star seal of approval:

Jackpot! Slapping his shoulder, the boss toasts him with two glasses of wine. Not only has he flattered the leader, he has also casually passed the message that he was working late even when the boss was not around.

Flattery is most challenging when the object of your adulation has no obvious merits. It takes a creative mind to find an appropriate opening in these situations. But it can be done. For example, when the studio chairman asks what you thought of his perfectly dreadful film, you can offer: “That was some movie!” or “You’ve really done it this time, Chairman Jiang.”

And sometimes glaring character flaws can be turned to your advantage. When kissing up to a chronic drunk, one can say, “Every hour with you is a happy hour.” Or when introduced to a boss who you’ve heard is lazy and prefers hanging out at the golf course or the race track instead of the office, you can proffer such ‘compliments’ as “Director Li, I hear your career is really taking off,” or “Director Zhao, a man like you is hard to find.”

So there you have it, the social grease that makes the Chinese movie business go. If you carry only one success tactic during your next trip to China, make it this one: “Flattery will get you everywhere.”

*Disclaimer: Any insinuation regarding the veracity of this article is greatly exaggerated and will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

**Special offer: If you’d like to buy a metric ton of magnesium, I’m your guy. Go to: www.buychinesemetal.com

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com