‘Gravity’ Thrills, ‘Catching Fire’ Chills as China’s Box Office Tops $3 Billion


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By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

November 26, 2013

Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity scored the PRC’s fifth best opening of the year with a nearly $36 million liftoff, as U.S.-made films grabbed the top four box office spots and six of the top seven in the week ending November 24th.

Gravity, which is performing nearly as well as surprise hit Life of Pi did at this time a year ago, also set records for IMAX, grossing almost $7.5 million, or more than 20 percent of the film’s opening 6-day total, on 123 screens. Gravity‘s marketing campaign benefited nicely from its liberal use of James Cameron’s quote calling it “The best space film ever.”

The fourth quarter has been a good one so far for Hollywood, with American movies capturing a 55 percent share of the market during the period from October 1st through November 24th.  U.S. films are now at their peak market share for 2013 with over 47 percent of all China box office revenue, though that figure will ebb back to about 42 percent as local Chinese releases dominate the calendar throughout December.Top 5 Opening Weeks 2013

One exception to this trend is Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Despite its rare day-and-date release and its huge reception in the U.S., Lionsgate’s sci-fi/action picture failed to stir up much interest in China. Its four-day total of $12.95 million makes it only the 31st best opener of the year, behind even such modestly performing titles as A Good Day to Die Hard and After Earth.  Although Catching Fire’s debut improved by about 16 percent over the opening week of its 2011 predecessor The Hunger Games, it did so in a market that has grown by more than 80 percent in the interim, so the sequel’s performance in the PRC has to be considered a letdown.

Another disappointment was the suspense-thriller Control, a China-Hong Kong-Taiwan co-production starring Daniel Wu that eked out only $3.5 million for the week. The California-born Wu has consistently been one of China’s most bankable stars, so his latest film’s weak opening must have surprised the film’s backers, who include Huayi Brothers, Media Asia and Celestial Pictures.

Box office week ending 11-24-13

Nationwide gross was $69 million, a 49 percent increase over the same period in 2012, and the biggest weekly total since early October, when Young Detective Dee reigned over a $101 million weekly theatrical total. Year-to-date gross has now eclipsed $3 billion, and if last year’s trend holds, the last five weeks of 2013 will generate a $500+ million haul for PRC theater operators, resulting in a final yearly gross of around $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

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Can China Save ‘Earth’?


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By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

July 12, 2013

The Will Smith-M. Night Shyamalan sci-fi /adventure After Earth arrives in Chinese theaters today with high hopes for a ‘do-over’ after its weak opening in the U.S., Europe, and the rest of the world. With its reported $135 million production budget and $100 million more in marketing costs, the Relativity Media/Overbrook Entertainment flop needs big China numbers if it is to recover from the financial crater it has dug for its investors.

A China box office recovery scenario has its precedents, as Chinese audiences often go against the global tide. Some stateside under-performers enjoy surprisingly big results in China; Battleship and John Carter, for example, ginned up China grosses of $50 million and $42 million respectively, accounting for 15 percent and more of their worldwide theatrical totals. The reverse is often true as well, as recent releases like Django Unchained, The Artist, and Les Miserables have left Chinese audiences cold and earned 2 percent or less of their worldwide revenues there.Image

Early reports have After Earth winning the PRC box office race on Friday, beating The Rooftop, the romantic musical starring, written and directed by, and featuring the music of Taiwanese multi-talent Jay Chou (The Viral Factor, The Green Hornet). Rooftop opened to an excellent $2.6 million total on Thursday, but suffered on Friday due to competition from After Earth, which took in a projected $4.1 million, including Thursday’s midnight grosses.

The week ending July 7th was a decent, if somewhat uneventful one at the theaters. Tiny Times continued to dominate the field, taking another $24.4 million out of the nationwide total of $65.3 million. As of today the youth-oriented romance has extended its gross to $75 million, which, believe it or not, is considered a disappointment by its producers and distributor Le Vision. The film has been blasted by some of the worst reviews and most scathing weibo criticism in recent memory. Le Vision has responded by moving up the sequel, Tiny Times 2, from December to August 9th, perhaps, in the words of my Chinese correspondent Firedeep, to “cook another meal while the pot is still hot.” The August date will be a competitive one, but December will be even more so, and Le Vision may have lost its nerve about facing the tough December field with such a critically panned franchise.

Last week also saw the opening of Andy Lau’s Blind Detective with a $13.7 million bow, and the winding down of Man of Steel, which has surpassed Skyfall to become the third highest-grossing American film in China this year. Man of Steel has collected just over $62 million to date and will end up around $63 million. And as we previously noted, the U.S.-China co-pro Man of Tai Chi fell flat with just $2.9 million in its opening weekend. That picture has cumed $4.1 million through its first 7 days and will probably fall short of $10 million over its PRC run.

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Looking ahead to next week, on Thursday July 18th Huayi Brothers will release the family comedy Mr. Go, a South Korea-China co-production about a Chinese teenaged girl who inherits a baseball playing gorilla and takes him to Korea where he becomes a star major league slugger. Silly? Perhaps. I expect it will do big business. Tune in here next week and let’s see what happens.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

 

‘Tiny Times,’ Gargantuan Grosses


Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Tiny Times

by Robert Cain for China Film Biz

July 4, 2013

Happy 4th of July everyone, it’s America’s Independence Day. As a person who enjoys the uninfringed right to express my thoughts to readers around the world, I’m extremely grateful for the precious freedom America’s founders fought for and bequeathed to their descendants.

On another note, I’m dedicating this post to Dominic Ng, Bennett Pozil, and their superb team at East West Bank. They recently hosted me at two of their events and made invaluable introductions for me to their clients. Dominic was kind enough to publicly recognize my work in a room full of heavy hitters at his “U.S.-China Economic Relations“ summit at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown Los Angeles. And since Bennett has been after me to keep writing this blog, pleading that in its absence he’s been forced to read trade papers like the Hollywood something-or-other and another thing whose name I forget that starts with the letter “V”, I suppose anyone who gets some use out of this humble publication should thank Bennett for his persistent cajoling.

It has been an eventful month or so since I last wrote about China’s film biz. In recent weeks Iron Man 3 finished its run at $121 million, edging out local romantic drama So Young to become the second highest grossing film of the year so far behind Journey to the West. Dreamworks’ animated movie The Croods defied everyone’s expectations, including my own, running up a magnificent $63 million, which places it among the highest grossing animated films in Chinese history. Legendary East announced a partnership with China Film Group; local film American Dreams in China ran up an $86 million gross; Man of Steel opened on 6,500 screens, the biggest launch to date in China; and Paramount’s World War Z was barred by the censors, despite the producers having made pre-emptive changes to avoid offending them.

Also, the July release schedule was announced, and with four big Hollywood titles opening (After Earth, White House Down, Fast and Furious 6, and Pacific Rim) the U.S. studios might finally get a chance to make up some ground against their Chinese competitors. Finally, the release schedule for December 2013 has been set, and it looks to be a blockbuster holiday, with Tiny Times 1.5, Jackie Chan’s Police Story 2013, mega-director Feng Xiaogang’s Personal Tailor, and possibly Overheard 3 and the star-studded Monkey King (with Donnie Yen, Chow Yun-fat and Aaron Kwok) all set to open within a two-week period. My Chinese correspondent Firedeep predicts that four of these five films will wind up out-grossing Iron Man 3.

Which brings us up to the present. China’s exhibitors and producers are enjoying another stellar year so far, with almost $1.7 billion in grosses in the first half, nearly 40 percent ahead of the first half of 2012. Given the patterns of prior years, I expect a $3.7 billion final tally for the year. It’s worth noting that China is now routinely grossing more each month than it did in the entire year of 2006. At the current rate of growth the PRC market will surpass North America as the world’s largest territory in 2017, and even if growth slows considerably the succession will take place in 2018 or 2019 at the latest.

The week ending June 30th was the third biggest so far this year, at $87.5 million. Tiny Times set new records for the opening day of a local film at $12.4 million, and went even wider than Man of Steel, running on nearly 50 percent of China’s 15,000+ screens. Look for the teen female oriented Tiny Times to wind up at around $100 million when its run ends.Box office week ending 6-30-13

Man of Steel continued strong, with $21.1 million in its second week. Heavy competition from Tiny Times will curtail its grosses, and it will likely finish in the $55 million to $60 million range, which is where many recent U.S. blockbusters have settled.

Star Trek Into Darkness finished up its run right in that same range, with $57 million. To the surprise of many observers Star Trek outperformed in China, earning a healthy 13 percent of its worldwide gross in the PRC. Compare this to, say, Skyfall, Oz the Great and Powerful, and The Hobbit, each of which earned only 5 percent of their respective worldwide totals in China.

In the coming days I’ll write more about China’s first half results and the U.S. studios’  performance. Until then, happy independence day!

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.