Tag Archives: Cain China Media Index

Chinese Online Media and Game Stocks Take a Tumble

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By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

The Cain China Media Index (CCMI) of U.S. and Chinese-listed publicly traded Chinese media stocks tumbled by 4 percent last week, giving up all the gains it had made in the prior week and then some.

This loss far exceeded the weekly declines in the Shanghai Composite (-0.5%) and the Hang Seng Index (-1.3%), and was downright gloomy compared with the U.S. S&P 500, which gained 1 percent, and the Dow Jones U.S. Media Index, which was up by more than 2 percent.

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Losers outnumbered gainers by a heavy 3 to 1 ratio, with Perfect World Games (PWRD; -14%) and Youku (YOKU; -10%) shedding the biggest percentages. Perfect World fell on a less than perfect earnings announcement, having missed analyst earnings estimates and also having lowered its revenue projections for the next quarter.  Youku’s drop was more a retracement of the past week’s gains, part of the stock’s very choppy price history.

Not everything was bleak in Chinese media, however. Movie companies and broadcasters saw average gains of 1.3 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. Enlight Media (Shenzhen 300251) turned in the best performance among movie company stocks, gaining 4 percent, and Shaanxi Broadcast & TV (Shanghai 600831) led the broadcasters with a 3 percent gain.

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Many of the stocks in the CCMI are still in the black for the year, though with the rather sour mood of the global market weighing on these stocks, most have declined substantially from their peak prices. But with the sector continuing to grow at a much faster rate than China’s GDP, it’s likely that the stocks will rebound soon.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

Youku and Tudou Lead Chinese Media Stocks to 1.6% Weekly Gain

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by Robert Cain for ChinaFilmBiz
May 28, 2012

The Cain China Media Index (CCMI) gained nearly 1.6 percent last week, outpacing the S&P 500, Shenzhen and Shanghai indices during a mixed week in the global equity markets.

CCMI vs. U.S. and Chinese Stock Market Indices (May 18, 2012 = 100)

China’s major Youtube lookalikes Youku (YOKU) and Tudou (TUDO) led the index with 20 percent and 18 percent respective gains on news of Tudou’s stellar first quarter results. The two companies are in the process of merging, and with Tudou’s scorching 77 percent Q1 revenue increase and narrowing losses, investors jumped in to drive the stock to its best weekly performance since early March.

5 of the 6 online media stocks in the CCMI gained ground last week. In addition to YOKU and TUDO, Phoenix New Media (FENG) also performed extremely well, posting a 9 percent gain as it beat analyst estimates with Q1 earnings of 7 cents per share.

Motion picture stocks fell by an average of 2.2 percent for the week, with only the small cap Taomee (TAOM) managing to eke out a gain. All 3 of the index’s broadcasting & cable stocks also fell, while advertising and game stocks managed modest gains.

In all, decliners outnumbered gainers 10 to 9 (with one stock, Shanda Games, flat for the week). However, stocks trading on the U.S. NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges were mostly gainers (8 to 3), while all but one of the index stocks trading on the Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges declined.

Tudou and Youku may be good buys at this stage, with both stocks having broken above their 50 day moving averages with convincing volume. There had been skepticism in the market about the two companies’ ability to contain costs and turn profitable, but these concerns now look to have been laid to rest.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.