‘Gravity’ defies ‘Storm’ and Staves Off ‘Hunger’ in China For Second Straight Weekly Win


Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.The White Storm poster

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

December 3, 2013

Strong word of mouth helped Gravity to float to a modest 36 percent decline in its second week, enabling it to fend off newcomer The White Storm and land its second straight win at the Chinese box office. Still going strong in its third week, Gravity should have no problem surpassing $70 million, even in the face of heavy competition from new Chinese openers.

This total would lock Gravity’s place as the 3rd biggest foreign release in China this year, behind Iron Man 3 and Pacific Rim. But it probably won’t be enough for the film to score a top 10 slot overall, as so many local films have performed well in 2013.

The Benny Chan directed action-crime thriller White Storm debuted to good but not great numbers, eking out a slim lead over Gravity during the past 3-day weekend, when they competed head-to-head. Blue Sky Studios’ animated adventure Epic fell far behind, mustering just $3.65 million in its 3-day weekend debut. The 7-month delay in Epic’s PRC release was undoubtedly a factor in its modest showing.

Box office for week ending Dec 1, 2013

Escape Plan will finish up its PRC run with an impressive $41.5 million, nearly double its U.S. total. Considering all the love China has shown in recent years for Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the movie’s sexagenarian stars, it will be a good idea for Hollywood to dust off its old two-hander action scripts and re-set them in China for this dynamic action duo.

For the first time since early September the weekly box office tally fell short of last year’s comps. Cumulative box office for the week ending December 1st saw a 7 percent decline to $58.5 million from the 63 million total in week 48 of 2012, when Life of Pi reigned.

Today saw the long-awaited debut of director Ning Hao’s No Man’s Land, an adventure thriller that has survived two major revisions and six aborted theatrical release dates over the past four years as DMG, CFG, Galloping Horse and the filmmaking team struggled to conform to the SARFT censors’ restrictions. Originally slated to release in 2010, the film stars the hugely popular Huang Bo and Xu Zheng, who co-starred in last year’s megahit Lost in Thailand.

With its excellent $3.5 million opening day, No Man’s Land should easily top Ning Hao’s prior personal record gross of $24.7 million for last year’s Guns ‘n Roses, though the director claims he doesn’t care how much the new film earns.

“If I wanted to make big money, I could have stayed at home (in coal-rich Shanxi province) and mined coal with my classmates, who are now all billionaires,” Mr. Ning said in a recent Wall Street Journal interview. I just want to do something that I like.”

Of course, what China’s theater operators would like is a big December for local Chinese pictures. With nearly 18,000 movie theater screens now in operation (35 percent more than at this time last year) and an average of 12 or 13 new ones opening every day, they are increasingly reliant on local films to help them pay off their investments.

November’s box office totaled $250 million, a 36 percent increase over 2012, and cumulative year-to-date box office now stands at $3.22 billion. If December’s revenue merely matches last December’s total—a distinct possibility given the tough comps established in 2012 by Lost in Thailand—then China’s total for 2013 will wind up just shy of $3.6 billion.

If, on the other hand, expected hits No Man’s Land, Personal Tailor and Police Story can each draw $80 million to $100 million in ticket revenue, then the year-end total could, just possibly, reach $3.7 billion.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

Advertisements

Warner Bros’ Stellar Year in China


Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Gravity pic

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz

November 21, 2013

Having already clinched bragging rights as the top-grossing Hollywood studio in China this year, Warner Bros further cemented its lead with the excellent rollout of Gravity on Tuesday.  With nearly $10 million in ticket sales in its first two days of PRC release, and what I’m estimating will be at least a $70 million final tally, Gravity should push Warners’ 2013 total in China to around $325 million.

This will mark the first time I can remember when Warners will have won the China box office crown. It will also reflect an impressive 80 percent revenue boost over Warners’ respectable, albeit distant second-place finish to Fox in 2012. With such box office hits as Pacific Rim, Man of Steel, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and now Gravity, Warners will average about $54 million in ticket sales per picture.

Second place in the studio derby this year will go to Disney, whose Marvel superhero offerings Iron Man 3 and Thor 2 will account for around $175 million of that studio’s $250 million annual take.

Sony and Fox will finish third and fourth, respectively, with Fox falling off precipitously from its record-holding $376 million China gross in 2012. Sony had only one strong release with Skyfall back in January, but it was able to get more films into China than any other studio and in aggregate managed to cobble together more than $200 million in gross revenue. Although Fox got solid results in 2013 from The Croods (a Dreamworks animated picture) and Wolverine, it couldn’t match the huge numbers of last year’s Titanic 3D, Life of Pi and Ice Age 3 and wound up with less than half of last year’s gross with around $176 million.

Universal and Paramount, the two studios with the least active presence in China, received the fewest import quota slots and grossed the least among the majors, with about $159 million and $129 million respectively.

At last week’s box office, U.S. films captured the top three slots, although two of these were buyout films. Thor: The Dark World and Escape Plan won the top two spots for their second week in a row with $24.9 million and $13.3 million, respectively. New entry Red 2 picked up $5.9 million in its first three days, enough to handily beat the $4.9 million that Red collected during its entire run in 2011. Total nationwide box office was $54 million for the week, a 57 percent increase over the same period last year.

Box Office week ending 11-17-13

U.S. films will see another week or two of relative prosperity before the year-end Chinese tent-poles move in and grab all the spoils in December and January. Look for big results from The White Storm, which releases on November 29th, followed by big December debuts from No Man’s Land, The Four 2, Firestorm, Personal Tailor and Police Story. By year’s end, Hollywood movies will land only 2 of the top 10 spots at China’s box office in 2013, down from 7 last year and 6 in 2011.

In aggregate, U.S. distributors will manage only a meager 5 to 6 percent increase in their China sales this year, a mere fraction of the 60 percent gain that Chinese language films have enjoyed. Hollywood has let yet another year go by doing little more than lobbing movies into China from across the Pacific, and it has paid the price with a precipitous drop in market share.

Meanwhile, aggressive non-Chinese players like Australia’s Village Roadshow and Korea’s CJ Entertainment have stepped into the breach with highly successful Mandarin language co-productions. And local Chinese players are rapidly growing in competitive strength, as exemplified by Huayi Brothers’ massive increase in its stock market capitalization to $5.2 billion from only $1 billion a year ago. Many of these companies have established beachheads in the U.S., and it won’t be long before their growing financial strength in China will enable them to compete effectively with the stodgy U.S. studios and further erode their diminishing dominance of the global film market.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.

Sly and Arnold’s Career Re-birth in China


Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.Escape Plan poster

By Robert Cain for China Film Biz (Bennett, Janet and Thomas, this one’s for you)

November 14, 2013

Long before they reach retirement age, most action movie stars naturally slide (or sometimes plummet) into box office obscurity. At 67 and 66 years of age, respectively, Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger have valiantly fought this trend, but they are long past their peak box office years in most places around the world.

But not in China. PRC audiences have embraced these two senior citizens and breathed new life into their action movie careers. In a land where the young are taught to treat their elders with respect, Schwarzenegger and Stallone’s recent film offerings have gotten lots of love from China’s teenaged and twenty-something filmgoers.

Take the pair’s current action-thriller, Escape Plan. In its first 10 days of release the picture has already grossed more in China, with nearly $26 million, than it will earn in its entire North American run. It nearly won last week’s box office crown against the far costlier Thor: The Dark World, with a 128 million RMB total versus Thor’s 129 million, despite Thor’s huge advantages of a bigger screen count, higher 3D ticket prices, and a rare day-and-date PRC release. Escape Plan will wind up with around $35 million in China, making it the highest grossing buyout film this year.

In fact, between them Sly and Arnold have appeared in 5 films that have each grossed more than 100 million RMB at China’s theaters, an exceptional record that is matched by few Chinese stars.  Their core audience in China has no doubt grown up watching the pantheon of Rocky, Rambo and Terminator movies on TV and DVD, and is now finally getting their chance to see their movie heroes on the big screen.

With such a big, welcoming audience in China, Sly and Arnold are undoubtedly looking for more movie vehicles to propel their newly vibrant careers. So I offer a few ideas below, completely free of charge (just send me my participation checks when the profits roll in):

Not So Total Recall. This action flick kicks follows a geriatric man who goes for a virtual vacation but is tragically unable to enjoy the early-bird Chinese buffet because he’s forgotten to bring along his virtual dentures.

The Lost Action Hero. A young Chinese fanboy’s dream of teaming up with his favorite 80’s action movie hero turns sour when he finds the now enfeebled and amnesia-prone codger stuck on Beijing’s 3rd ring road, unable to find a way to exit and make his way back to the retirement village.

The Dependables – a team of elderly mercenaries are stymied in their attempt to eliminate a North Korean dictator when the dictator’s henchmen cruelly cut off their supply of adult diapers.

Stop or My Great Granddaughter Will Shoot – a once-tough detective’s life and work are disrupted by a Golden Week visit from his 6 year-old, pacifier sucking descendant, who embarrasses him by turning out to be a better crime-fighter than he is.

Rocky Rolls – 78 year-old Rocky Balboa comes back for one more title bout staged in the Forbidden City, fighting this time from his electric wheelchair. You’ll cry tears of nostalgia as you watch Rocky slowly glide up the steps of Beijing’s Temple of Heaven, arms raised in victory, in his wheelchair stair climber.

For the week ending November 10th, PRC box office totaled a solid $56 million, 43 percent better than the same frame last year. After the one-two finish of Thor and Escape Plan, Hotel Transylvania took in $3.5 million in its second week of release for a two-week cume of $9.3 million, quite respectable considering its status as a buyout film and its China release delay of more than a year.

Box office for week ending Nov 10, 2013

Russia’s Stalingrad crumbled against the Hollywood competition, dropping by nearly 70 percent in its second week. Although it debuted at number one in the prior week—making it the first non-Hollywood, non-Chinese movie to top the charts in China—the film has quickly faded and will fail to reach the 100 million RMB level.

The rest of November and December will witness a crush of new releases, more than in any previous year. On Singles Day (an unofficial holiday on 11-11) nine new domestic releases cannibalized each other, leaving nearly all of them with dismal results. November 15th will see Red 2 and Olympus Has Fallen open against each other, and early next week Gravity, Rush, and the Hunger Games sequel Catching Fire will all open within a few days of one other.

Although China’s box office results in November have so far fallen a little short of general expectations, the rest of the year should be flush with activity and the year-end tally should well exceed $3.5 billion.

Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.