Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.
China hold the key to Avengers: Age of Ultron’s global box office fate
Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.
By Robert Cain for China Film Biz
May 1, 2013
I didn’t dare say it until now as I’ve been holding my breath for my friends who handled the Chinese production and release of Iron Man 3, but “WOW!” Their picture has just set new PRC revenue and attendance records for midnight screenings with over $2 million, and initial reports indicate it has easily surpassed Transformers 3’s full opening day record of $15 million, with a nearly $20 million haul in its first-day plus midnight receipts.
And after so many disappointing PRC releases of Hollywood films in the first quarter, IM3 now appears likely to become the first U.S. film in 12 months, since Titanic 3D last April, to crack $100 million at Chinese multiplexes.
I’ve gone on record several times here with the opinion that So Young might beat Iron Man 3 in total China box office revenue. But now it’s a real horse race, and I may wind up eating my words.
Barely a year ago it was conventional wisdom that super hero films don’t play in China, because audiences didn’t grow up with the characters and weren’t familiar with their stories. And until recently this was true; the last Iron Man movie grossed only a fraction of what Avatar, Inception, and several Chinese language hits did back in 2010.
But Disney and Marvel have worked hard to edify the Chinese audience with films like Captain America, Thor, and especially The Avengers, and together with the invaluable efforts of their Chinese partner DMG they made Iron Man 3’s release into a major cultural event. Despite increasing their initial midnight screen count from 1,500 to over 2,300, there was scarcely a ticket to be had in most theaters, and commentary about the film has lit up China’s social media networks.
The China-U.S. collaboration on Iron Man 3 faced numerous challenges and risks, and its success was far from a sure thing, but today’s box office results have vindicated the Disney/Marvel/DMG strategy. Congratulations to all involved for boldly and successfully pioneering new ground in the China-Hollywood relationship.
Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.
Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn.
By Robert Cain for China Film Biz
April 26, 2013
The PRC movie showdown between So Young and Iron Man 3 is now at hand. And what a showdown it is! The two movies combined couldn’t possibly generate as much drama, tension, and emotional angst as has the behind-the-scenes battle over IM3’s release date.
Although So Young has only just opened, and Iron Man 3 has yet to unspool in China, So Young has already won the battle, thanks to a relentless campaign by that film’s Chinese distributor Enlight to derail the Disney/Marvel/DMG machine. The story of the two films’ jockeying for position offers interesting (and somewhat damning) insight into how SARFT favors domestic movies over foreign ones.
Back in March it was announced that the romantic melodrama So Young and the Hollywood action tent-pole Iron Man 3 would open head-to-head on April 26th. This is an excellent date, just ahead of the three-day Labor Day/May Day holiday, when business is expected to be brisk.
As a local film, So Young’s debut on April 26th was locked. As a perceived foreign film, albeit one with a domestic Chinese investor and partner in DMG, Iron Man 3 was on shaky ground, subject to the indignities that several Hollywood movies have recently faced in China (see this article for a taste of how Hollywood movies have fared lately at the hands of SARFT).
After much lobbying by the producers of both films, and a confusing string of announcements by various parties about where Iron Man 3 would land, it now appears that the Robert Downey Jr.-starring action extravaganza has been granted a release at 12:01am on May 1st.
For So Young, this is great news. The low-budget romantic melodrama gets the holiday to itself, and five full days to rake in its spoils before the big budget Hollywood movie enters the scene. Indeed, early reports are saying that So Young has opened to an excellent $8 million Friday debut, and that it has a good shot at earning at least $100 million.
For Iron Man 3, the May 1st date has to be disappointing, but it’s much better than the May 3rd date that had been widely reported a few days ago. Never mind the rather silly assertion from “Deadline” that May 3rd was the date Disney and Marvel were “eyeing all along.” Why would anyone be happy to open just after a major box office holiday? That was pure face-saving spin, presumably from Disney’s PR folks. Credit DMG with fighting a nearly unwinnable fight and preserving at least one day of the holiday to bolster its debut.
Whether Iron Man 3 can overtake So Young and become the first Hollywood film in over a year to reach $100 million is an open question, but missing the first two days of the three-day holiday will certainly hurt its prospects.
According to ‘Firedeep’, my unfailingly reliable “deep throat” in China, Iron Man 3 was buffeted by a series of unexpected delays, which began with some late reshoots of its Chinese scenes. According to Firedeep, the locked print of the film wasn’t sent to the Film Bureau for technical censorship until the night of April 12th, which made the April 26th debut a rather iffy, although still perfectly possible, proposition.
Meanwhile, the translation and dubbing of the film ran into late hour delays when Marvel decided to replace the original translator.
But the biggest obstacle for Iron Man 3 emerged when So Young’s distributor, Enlight Films, decided to play the ‘local film protection’ card, putting up major resistance to its competitor’s holiday release date by appealing to China’s Film Bureau. It’s rumored that So Young’s celebrity director, Vicky Zhao, showed up at the Bureau and literally cried her way to sympathy and ultimate victory. The film authorities dithered and vacillated before finally announcing their ‘final’ decision about IM3 on Friday, causing great confusion amongst moviegoers and provoking howls of protest from Marvel’s Chinese fanboys.
As one sharp-tongued Chinese observer put it on a PRC film website, “Back and forth. This whole thing is a fucking mess. Fuck Enlight Pictures and fuck SARFT like every time.”
And as if to underscore the point, SARFT continued to torture Django Unchained by repeatedly approving and then un-approving that film’s re-release. On Thursday one announcement pegged Django’s theatrical revival for May 9th, and a day later it was supposedly pushed to May 12th. It’s death by a thousand cuts. Meanwhile many frustrated Tarantino fans have undoubtedly downloaded the uncensored BD-rip from pirate sites, leaving one to wonder whether any among them will still be waiting to buy theater tickets if and when the movie finally goes back up on the big screen.
Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.
Follow me on Twitter @robcain or Sina Weibo @robcain, or connect with me on LinkedIn. For info on China Pooch email info@chinapooch.com
By Robert Cain for China Film Biz
March 7, 2013
Two thoughts on all the media speculation about whether Iron Man 3 will get official co-production approval from SARFT for its China release this spring:
A while back Disney, Marvel and DMG had to decide whether to comply with the strict SARFT co-production rules, or to sacrifice some of the benefits of official co-pro status and instead optimize Iron Man 3’s potential for the global market. Not surprisingly (as was revealed by a flood of press coverage that included some untimely revelations at last summer’s Comic-Con), they decided on the latter approach, making a film broadly aimed at the global audience.
Although they shot scenes in China last December with local actors—most notably the venerable Wang Xueqi and even a rumored appearance by movie diva Fan Bingbing—the partners’ overall creative and business approach precluded full adherence to the co-production rulebook. Namely, their strategy made it impractical to hire enough Chinese citizens to comply with the rule requiring that one-third of “major actors” be Chinese nationals, and they didn’t incorporate the requisite level of Chinese cultural content to qualify the film as an official co-pro under the Chinese guidelines.
But by working closely with the Chinese government, the co-producing partners have already secured many of the benefits they would have received with official co-pro status. These include:
They managed to work in a smart show of goodwill toward China on the Gala program by presenting the “Iron Man Hero Award” to a young Chinese boy who committed a heroic act worthy of Iron Man’s approval, as pictured below.
Though no one at Marvel, Disney or DMG are talking publicly about their plans for IM3 in China, I’ve confirmed through other sources that they’re planning a major worldwide premiere for the film in Beijing, something that has rarely if ever happened before for a major U.S. studio.
The one major thing that these three companies presumably won’t get is the full 43 percent rental fee that comes with co-production status. But with all the other promotional consideration and support they’re receiving, by my estimation they’ve positioned the film to very likely become one of the top 3 U.S. films in China this year. Given the way things have been going for U.S. action films in China lately, that’s a very big advantage indeed.
In any case, for Disney and Marvel theatrical revenue is only a small part of a bigger picture that includes their interests in the Shanghai theme park and their consumer products business in China, both of which I expect will benefit nicely from the exposure and interest they’ve generated in the Iron Man franchise.This is exactly the sort of hustle and outside-the-box thinking that are required to ride the China wave. If Disney keeps up this level of focus and commitment to the market, this could be the year they win bragging rights as the top-grossing U.S. studio in China.
Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.
by Robert Cain for China Film Biz
May 9, 2012
China joined the rest of the world last weekend in the Avengers phenomenon, pouring $19 million into the ocean of cash that the film has collected around the world. That’s a big opening weekend for the movie, third only behind its premier weekends in the U.S. ($200 million) and the U.K. ($25.4 million). In its first two days Avengers’ China run exceeded the entire runs of prior Marvel superhero movies Thor and Captain America, which each earned a total of $14 million in China.
As I pointed out back in December, Thor and Captain America under-indexed in China because the country has no tradition of superhero stories, and apparently not as much interest in these types of films as there is in other markets. “Green Hornet” fared better with $21 million, mainly because it featured a popular Chinese actor, Jay Chou, as the co-star.
So does the Avengers opening signal the start of a new era for superhero movies in China? Should the team at Marvel be popping champagne corks and swinging from the rafters (or whatever superhero movie execs do) to celebrate their ascendance to China’s box office throne?
Not yet. Not hardly.
While a $19 million opening is very good for China, it’s not super-sized; two other Hollywood films—Titanic 3D and Mission Impossible 4—have opened to bigger numbers so far this year.
And compared to its spectacular reception in the rest of the world, Avengers’ start in China can only be termed as “very good,” but not “great.”
In fact, when measured on a relative indexing basis against those other movies, Avengers will likely wind up as an under-performer in China.
Let’s take a look at the numbers. Last year, American films overall earned 5 percent of their total global box office revenue in China. Marvel’s superhero movies under-indexed there, with Captain America earning 3.8 percent of its global box office figure in China, and Thor earning 3.2 percent. Green Hornet was the only superhero movie to over-index, with 9.2 percent of its global take coming from Chinese ticket sales.
It appears a safe bet that Avengers will wind up with at least $50 million in box office receipts in China, which would qualify it as a hit movie there. But as we saw in a recent ChinaFilmBiz analysis, this year Hollywood movies have been earning more than 10 percent of their global revenue in China. Assuming Avengers goes over $1.5 billion globally, and that it takes in $50 or $60 million in China, its China share of the worldwide total would barely exceed 3 percent, a rather disappointing performance.
Were Avengers to index at the average level achieved by other films Hollywood in China this year, it would sell $150 million or more in tickets in China. That’s not going to happen.
But Marvel clearly has China on its mind, with its plans to co-produce Iron Man 3 together with Chinese production company DMG. No doubt they’ll cast a Chinese lead or two, perhaps even Jay Chou. Others looking to capitalize in China on the superhero genre would do well to consider doing the same, or perhaps even creating new Chinese superhero characters with global appeal.
Robert Cain is a producer and entertainment industry consultant who has been doing business in China since 1987. He can be reached at rob@pacificbridgepics.com and at www.pacificbridgepics.com.
chinafilmbiz 中国电影业务 